Chelsea manager Maurizio Sarri still believes that Gonzalo Higuain is adapting to the rigours of the Premier League.
Using Luis Suarez’s first season at Liverpool as a comparison, the Blues boss says he expects an improvement from the Argentine come next campaign:
“It’s difficult to adapt to the Premier League. I think in the next season he will be able to score a lot. For a striker, it is difficult to get used to the Premier League. I remember Suarez at Liverpool in [his] first season only scored three goals, then 16, then 24.”
If we gloss over the fact that Suarez actually scored 4 goals in his first six months at Anfield, Sarri‘s central claim is that there is more to come from the 31-year-old.
However, if we look at his first six months of the season at AC Milan, compared to his start at Chelsea, we can see he is just carrying on a trend from his time in Italy.
xG (Expected Goals)
Using Wyscout‘s measurement for xG, it appears that Higuain is averaging almost exactly the same quality of chances at Chelsea as he was at AC Milan. During the first six months of the season, his xG per game was 0.48, compared to 0.47 during his four months at Stamford Bridge.
There are certain variables here in the fact that he played 500 more minutes for the Italian side than he has for the Blues, but even so, he is getting exactly the same quality of goalscoring opportunities.
For Milan in the league, he scored six compared to four for Chelsea this season, 1 below his total xG for both clubs (7.22 for Milan and 5.05 for Chelsea).
Shots on Target
For Chelsea, Higuain has managed 39 shots (30.8% of those which were on target), compared to 52 for Milan (where he hit 34.6% in goal). His accuracy is slightly down but not dramatically different.
Offsides
Anyone who saw the United game yesterday would have noticed how many times the Argentine was caught offside. This was no one-off. It is a clear problem that has emerged since he arrived in England. In Italy, he averaged 0.53 offsides per game, but that has doubled (1.02) after his switch to the Premier League.
His lack of pace to get in behind opposition defences is getting exposed, and an adaptation period won’t solve this issue.
Offensive Duels and Fouls
The physicality of the Premier League is always something that catches out foreign imports. Despite that, Higuain was actually fouled far more regularly playing for Milan this campaign (0.86 per game compared to 0.18 for Chelsea).
However, what’s more significant is his failure to win duels with opposing defenders. In Italy in the first half of the season, he won 42.9% of offensive duels per match. That has dropped severely to 30% since his move in January.
All the attacking stats suggest that things won’t change that much if he stays at Chelsea next campaign. If anything, it looks to be part of a general decline in Higuain’s game in front of goal, which prompted Juventus to let him go.
During his last season for Juve in Serie A, he scored 16 goals with an xG of just 12. That means he scored four more than he should have been expected to. The season before that, he scored 24 in the league with an xG of 18.57, nearly six higher than expected. The decline in his game is clear and looks unlikely to change course.
