Is Chelsea Target Viktor Gyokeres Better Than Nicolas Jackson? We Take A Look At The Numbers

Chelsea have been linked with Sporting Lisbon striker Viktor Gyokeres as a potential alternative to Napoli’s Victor Osimhen and Brentford’s Ivan Toney over the past week or so.

The former Coventry City player has excelled since making the switch to Portugal in the summer, having hit the back of the net 17 times in all competitions.

However, Sporting head coach Ruben Amorim has recently spoken out to say that Gyokeres will only leave the Portuguese side in January if a team pays his €100m (£86m) release clause.

That is an eyewatering amount for a player who is unproven at the highest level so we have decided to look at the stats to see whether he would be much of an upgrade on Chelsea’s no.9 Nicolas Jackson. Press the next page as we compare the two forwards.

Goals compared to xG

There is no doubt who the better finisher is out of the two players at the moment. In the league this season, Gyokeres has scored 10 goals with an xG of just 5.8.

In contrast, Jackson has an xG of 9.8 but he has only scored 7 times. These stats counter the argument that Gyokeres is playing in an easier league.

The Swedish international has had far few opportunities to score in the Liga Portugal, compared to Jackson in the English top flight.

Yet, Gyokeres has managed to score 3 more goals. The 25-year-old is simply more clinical.

Shots per 90

There has been criticism from pundits (most notably Alan Shearer) in terms of Jackson failing to get into shooting positions.

Based on this season’s stats, Jackson is averaging 3.1 shots per 90 minutes, which isn’t a bad return when you compare it to other forwards. Mo Salah, for example, is averaging 3.00 per 90 currently.

Gyokeres, meanwhile, is shooting less often for Sporting (2.78), which may sound like a negative, but it also means he has a better shot conversion rate due to the number of goals he has scored.

The Swede is scoring with 22% of his shots, while Jackson is hitting the back of the net 17% of the time.

Touches in the penalty area

Again, we have included this metric due to criticisms of Jackson when it comes to his presence in the penalty box.

The Senegalese international has averaged 5.68 touches per 90 minutes inside the area this season, which is not exactly a low figure. Erling Haaland, for example, averages 5.83.

However, Gyokeres is once again superior with 8.91 touches in the penalty box per 90. Some may point to the fact that Liga Portugal is a weaker league so a striker for a dominant team like Sporting would probably have more touches in the area than an average forward.

That argument doesn’t hold much weight, as Gyokeres is way out in front on this stat in the Portuguese top flight. The player second to him is Benfica’s Rafa Silva (who averages just 7.45). Gyokeres is a monster in the penalty box.

xA and key passes per 90

While Chelsea are keen to sign a poacher, manager Mauricio Pochettino will still want a no.9 who can get involved in the build-up.

Jackson has struggled in this regard, having an xA (expected assist) totalling just 1.3 from 16 appearances. Gyokeres, on the other hand, has an xA total of 2.2 from 13 appearances. His xA per 90 is almost double that of the Chelsea striker.

When we look at key passes (the pass before a shot on goal), it is a similar situation. For the Blues, Jackson is providing less than 1 key pass per 90 (0.91), while Gyokeres’s figure is 1.40 per 90 minutes.

Despite being Sporting’s top scorer, the forward is playing a role in creating chances too.

Aerial ability

It’s fair to say that neither Jackson nor Gyokeres are particularly strong in aerial duels. They are not target men in any way shape or form.

This season, Jackson has a 35.5% aerial win ratio, while Gyokeres’s is only marginally better at 37.5%.

With both being 6ft 2, you do feel this is an area that the two players could improve, especially when you consider that Victor Osimhen (who is an inch shorter) wins between 45% and 55% of his aerial battles.

In conclusion, the stats do show that Gyokeres would be an upgrade on Jackson, but it is an open question whether it is worth paying £86m to sign him.