Ivan Toney V Victor Osimhen: Who Should Chelsea Sign? We Take A Look At The Numbers

Chelsea are seriously contemplating tabling a “big offer” for Brentford’s Ivan Toney when the transfer window reopens in January, according to Football.London.

With other reports suggesting that the Blues could wait until the end of the season to make a concerted effort to sign Napoli’s Victor Osimhen instead, we have decided to put together a detailed comparison of the two strikers.

Of course, it’s probably wise not to take all of these statistics at face value, as we are comparing players in two different leagues, but it will give fans a good idea of what they can expect from the pair.

Press the next page as we assess the capabilities of Toney and Osimhen (using data from FBRef for last season).

Shots per 90

When assessing a striker, it’s not just about how many goals they score, but how often they get into scoring/shooting positions.

If you shoot more, you score more, it is as simple as that. For this category, there is a clear winner between Toney and Osimhen.

The Napoli forward averaged 4.63 shots per 90 in Serie A last season, compared to Toney’s 2.65. Of course, there is one mitigating factor that has to be taken into account.

Osimhen was playing for a dominant team in Italy (who won the title), while Toney (in contrast) was at a mid-table club, so he will have fewer chances to shoot. Even so, there is a significant enough disparity between the two forwards to suggest that Osimhen is simply more liable to get a shot away on goal.

Shot accuracy

This metric goes hand-in-hand with shot frequency. There is no point in a player regularly getting shots away if most of them miss the target!

On the face of it, there is very little difference between Osimhen and Toney in terms of accuracy. The Nigerian’s percentage (39.4%) is only slightly higher than the England international’s (37.9%).

However, this is where we can delve deeper into the numbers to give us a better picture. Due to Osimhen’s higher shot frequency, the Napoli star averaged 1.82 shots on target per 90 in Serie A.

In comparison, Toney only managed 1.01 per 90 in the Premier League, which means that Osimhen is testing the goalkeeper nearly twice as often.

Non-penalty xG compared to actual goals scored

To get a good comparison of Osimhen’s and Toney’s finishing ability, you can look at how far the two strikers out-perform their non-penalty expected goals.

Removing penalties from the data gives us a more accurate picture, as goals and misses from the 12-yard spot can skew the results.

When we look at the two forwards, it’s clear that Osimhen is the better finisher (based on his performances during the 2022/23 Serie A campaign).

The 24-year-old scored 24 league goals from open play, which outperformed his non-penalty xG by 5.1. Toney, meanwhile, was only just above his non-penalty xG (+0.8).

xA (expected assists per 90)

Being a striker is not all about scoring goals. If you play as a lone No.9, you need to be able to link up play and provide opportunities for your teammates too.

xA or expected assists is a stat that gives a score from 0 to 1 for every chance a player creates during the season. The higher the xA per 90 a player has, the more creative they are.

This is a metric where Toney comes out on top. Over the course of last campaign, the Brentford striker averaged 0.15 xA per 90, which is one and a half times more than Osimhen (0.1 per 90).

Considering Toney’s hold-up play is up there with the best in the Premier League, that is not that surprising.

Aerial ability

You need physicality if you are to play as a striker in the Premier League and being able to win your fair share of aerial duels is a large part of that.

Considering Toney’s profile as a target man, you would assume that he’d be superior to Osimhen in the air. That assumption is, however, incorrect.

Toney won 48.2% of his aerial duels in the Premier League last season, while Osimhen’s win ratio is an impressive 54.6%.

In conclusion then, based on the numbers, you would have to say that Osimhen would be the better purchase for Chelsea.