We Predict Chelsea’s Final 11 League Games – Can The Blues Clinch A European Spot?
It’s been a very tough season for Chelsea. Heading into the international break, the Blues find themselves 11th in the table.
However, with England now likely to receive 5 Champions League places for next campaign, it means there is still a chance that Mauricio Pochettino’s side can clinch a Europa Conference League spot if they finish 8th.
Over the last 5 years, the average points required for an 8th-place finish is 57. The lowest was 52 in 2022 and the highest was 61 in 2021.
Based on the fact that Chelsea have 39 points from 27 matches, it means Pochettino’s men could need between 18 and 21 points from their remaining fixtures. Is that possible? Press the next page as we predict the results of their final 11 games.
Burnley (h) – March 30th – WIN
The Clarets defeated Brentford last time out and drew against West Ham in the last away fixture so this is not a guaranteed three points, but the Blues should have enough to come out on top.
Manchester United (h) – April 4th – DRAW
Pochettino’s team were very poor in the reverse fixture back in December and they will be keen to put that right at Stamford Bridge. However, the Red Devils don’t concede many goals away from home so this could end in a frustrating stalemate.
Sheffield United (a) – April 7th – WIN
The Blades look set to go straight back down and their home form has been abject. There will be an inquest if Chelsea don’t win this fixture.
Everton (h) – April 15th – WIN
Sean Dyche’s side are a better team than their position in the table suggests so the Blues may have to scrap to secure a win at Stamford Bridge.
Arsenal (a) – Date – TBA – LOSS
Due to the Gunners’ Champions League commitments, there are only two dates where this match can be played – either between the FA Cup semi-final and Villa or right before the final day of the season. They are formidable at the Emirates so Chelsea are not expected to take any points from this match.
Aston Villa (a) – April 27th – LOSS
Again, like Arsenal, the Villans have been incredibly difficult to beat on their own patch and, considering Chelsea’s rather flaky away form, this is another match where a defeat is more than likely.
Tottenham (h) – Date – TBA – DRAW
The rearranged London derby could actually be played between the Sheffield United and Everton fixtures but this is the other midweek date that could be selected instead. While the Blues did beat Spurs 4-1 away, their opponents did have nine men. This fixture could be slightly more tricky with 11-a-side.
West Ham (h) – May 4th – DRAW
The Hammers can be a very tough nut to crack, especially away from the London Stadium. They have picked up nearly as many points on the road as Chelsea have done at home this season. This has a draw written all over it.
Nottingham Forest (a) – May 11th – WIN
Due to the points deduction, Forest are likely to be fighting for Premier League survival at this stage of the campaign. However, they are pretty poor at home, having lost 7 of their 14 matches, and you’d back Pochettino’s men to come out on top.
Brighton (a) – Date – TBA – DRAW
This is Chelsea’s third rearranged fixture and there is a strong possibility that it will be played on the midweek prior to the final day. The Seagulls could be scrapping for European qualification so a point at the Amex would not be the worst result.
Bournemouth (h) – May 19th – WIN
The Cherries are already all but safe from relegation so they won’t exactly put up too much of a fight on the last day, especially at Stamford Bridge.
Based on our predictions, it will be very tight in terms of Chelsea’s chances of finishing eighth. We have them securing 19 points from 11 fixtures, finishing the season on 58 points. That could be enough but it might not be, depending on how other teams around them perform.