Liverpool legend John Barnes believes Aston Villa, not Chelsea, are the “favourites” to finish in fourth spot this season.
Speaking to Lucky Block, Barnes said that the Villans remain an “unfancied team” despite qualifying for the Champions League last campaign, but he feels they can be more consistent than either Chelsea or Spurs:
“I think the race for the final Champions League place is as interesting as the title race because you’ve got Aston Villa, Tottenham and Chelsea all with an eye on that, along with Newcastle and Man United, who are a little bit further away at the moment. I think any of those teams could grab it. It will come down to who can actually put a consistent run together. At this moment in time, Villa seems to be the team who are leading the pack and have the best chance.”
“As much as Aston Villa are the most unfancied team for that four spot, and that’s even after qualifying for the Champions League last season, but the other clubs have more pedigree in recent years and some have better players, but they seem to be the ones who have got the most stability. There are good players and a good manager at Villa Park, I’ll make them favourites (for fourth). Things can change, especially around Christmas when the games start stack up, but in terms of what they’re actually doing now, I would make them favourites.”
Chelsea’s performance at Anfield shows they are in the mix
While they may not have got the result they wanted against Liverpool last weekend, there were a lot of positives to take away from the match.
The Blues had 57% of the ball at Anfield, which is unprecedented for an away team. If you remove the penalty from the equation, the xG for the two teams was quite similar so a draw would have been a fairer result.
If they perform to that level for the rest of the season, there is a good chance that they will qualify for the Champions League. As Barnes points out, though, consistency is key.
The statisticians are backing Maresca’s men
Opta‘s predicted table has given Chelsea a 33.88% chance of finishing in the Champions League places, which is a slightly higher percentage than Aston Villa (32.01%) and much higher than Tottenham (19.62%).
The Blues are showing up well in the stats based on their performances in the first eight Premier League games.
Find out who is in Chelsea’s first-team squad for the 2024/2025 season here