Taking Calculated Risks in Gambling and Football

Taking Calculated Risks in Gambling and Football

One year ago, Chelsea managed to reverse the first leg defeat to PSG and win by two goals to none at Stamford Bridge. They advanced to the next stage of the competition and Mourinho played an important role in that stunning victory. More importantly, the manager drew powerful conclusions and when the two teams met again in the same stage of the Champions League, his team managed to snatch a draw in Paris.

Instead of playing defensive football on the road, Chelsea took the initiative and by half time they were already ahead. Savvy football fans, surely noticed that the team deliberately conceded the initiative in the second half and that was not an accident. Mourinho instructed his players to shift into a defensive gear, trying to defend the narrow lead, while hoping that one of his strikers could score on the counterattack.

The risks are obvious and knowing how the French side dominated the second half, it is easy to imagine what would’ve happened had PSG scored twice. Interestingly enough, as well as being one of the most famous and best-paid football managers on the planet, the “Special one” is also a brand ambassador of a South Korean casino. Can that be taken as some sort of evidence for Mr Mourinho’s new-found, uncanny ability of taking calculated risk?

Casino players are frequently pit against the same difficult decisions when choosing not only the games, but also the types of casino wagering. The differences might elude less experienced players, but a game of blackjack, for instance, can be played using seemingly opposing strategies. Risk-taking is something that players take voluntarily, yet they don’t do it based on hunches or inspiration, but on a constant analysis of probabilities.

Managing Players and Budgets When Stakes Get High

Mourinho is widely regarded as one of the smartest managers in professional football and his success is not only the result of choosing the right starting formation. Chelsea is a highly competitive football team that participates in various competitions, including two English cups. This means that the team has to play a lot of games and fatigue becomes a real problem for players, which makes them prone to injuries.

Blanc praised the Portuguese for his decision to rest key players in the FA Cup match against Bradford, knowing that elimination from this competition would alleviate the pressure. Casino players don’t have to make the same decisions as every single round matters for them and the goal is to maximize profits regardless of stakes. What they do when they play casino games is to hedge against risks, by placing wagers that in conjunction allow them to reach the desired result.

For instance, roulette players sometimes bet a smaller amount on a single number, hoping for the maximum return on investment. At the same time, they take some precautions and place a larger amount on the opposite colour or a cluster of numbers that are diametrically opposed on the roulette wheel. For the untrained eye these bets might look like they defeat the purpose, yet a savvy casino player knows that the strategy is correct and is going to deliver profits in the long run.

New Strategy Expected For the Second Leg

Settling for one point in Paris was not exactly a bad result for Chelsea, but the risky strategy employed by Mourinho could’ve easily backfired. He will need to make some adjustments in the starting formation, but also give different directions to players about how to play the first 45 minutes. Home pitch advantage is huge in the return legs of Champions League games and the hosts should try to capitalise on it.

Sometimes football managers and casino players commit the same mistakes when they feel like they are ahead, going down one of the two perilous paths. Coaches instruct their players to simply defend and hope that victory will come naturally, as they are dwelling on past results. By employing a defensive minded strategy and relinquishing home pitch advantage, Chelsea would commit a serious mistake. When PSG is allowed to take the initiative it starts firing on all cylinders and could score at Stamford Bridge.

Casino players are equally vulnerable to downswings when they spend too many hours playing table games and things don’t go as planned. They are also prone to committing the mistake of squandering winnings, hoping for a massive score, instead of gradually building on that success. Both approaches are risky and take a toll on their budgets and in the long run can lead to bankruptcy or worse.

Luckily for Chelsea, it has one of the most capable managers and Mourinho is unlikely to commit any of these mistakes. Although his team still needs to maintain a safe distance from Manchester City in the domestic championship and play in the League Cup, the Champions League remains the top priority.

The home side will be playing offensive football and try to take an early lead, knowing that this would only amplify the pressure on PSG. Even the best football players’ crack under pressure and the French side hasn’t won an important competition in a long while. Some of their footballers are no longer in their prime, therefore placing all their hopes on the second leg so they are under tremendous pressure.